Fiscal Risk

Japan governm

2026-09-10 03:18:28

Nomura says Japan is driving the global rise in long-term yields, with AI stocks in the firing line

Japan’s 10-year government bond yield briefly rose above 3.0% in Tokyo trading, the first time since September 1996, and Nomura Research Institute argues the move is being driven mainly by domestic forces rather than spillovers from overseas markets. Executive economist Takahide Kiuchi said the 10-year JGB yield has climbed about 1.4 percentage points over the past year, while the increase in the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was only about half that size. In the institute’s breakdown, the largest single contribution came from a 0.60 percentage-point “other” category that it said largely reflects a fiscal risk premium tied to worsening conditions in Japan’s public finances. Nomura said three factors pushed the 10-year JGB yield toward and then through 3%: stronger expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike after Kevin Warsh’s remarks at Jackson Hole, rising expectations for a Bank of Japan hike at its September policy meeting, and growing concern over Japanese fiscal expansion after ministries submitted fiscal 2027 budget requests about JPY 20 trillion above the fiscal 2026 budget. The report also said the Trump administration has taken the unusual step of pressing Japan on both fiscal sustainability and rate hikes. Nomura warned that if the Japan-led rise in long-end yields persists, it could weigh on government finances, financial institutions, real estate, equities, and especially technology and AI-related stocks and investment.

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Bitcoin

2026-09-07 11:45:34

Bitcoin Shows Greater Immunity to Bond Market Volatility Than Gold, Hard Asset Appeal Grows

As fiscal concerns over developed economies rise, both gold and bitcoin have strengthened. The 90-day correlation between BTC and gold reached 0.59, the highest since 2020. However, bitcoin's correlation with the 10-year Treasury yield is only -0.17, compared to gold's -0.41, indicating bitcoin is less tied to bond market dynamics, potentially strengthening its case as a hard asset.

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Bitcoin

2026-08-27 17:22:52

Bitcoin up more than 20% since Aug. 19 after Bessent bond buyback plan

Techub, citing Business Insider, reported that U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent announced a bond buyback plan on Aug. 19. The market view described in the report is that the plan did not solve problems tied to U.S. debt and deficits. That response, according to the report, weakened the dollar and lifted both gold and Bitcoin. Since the announcement, Bitcoin has gained more than 20%, while gold has risen 14% since the start of August. Business Insider also said gold and Bitcoin exchange-traded funds took in about $7 billion over the past five trading days, the highest level on record for the same period. The report framed both assets as scarce exposures outside the dollar system. It said the flows into gold and Bitcoin reflect current market concern over fiscal risk.

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